P.S. What the hell happened to the penalty kill?!?!?! that might end up being the deal breaker.

I suspect the Devs’ ace-in-the-hole will be veterans who’ve been mediocre this season (e.g., Rolston, Madden, and especially Holik). Shanahan has also been spotty although his penalty shot goal a few games ago made up for any inconsistencies in his game, at least to me. Besides being veterans who are used to cranking up their game every April, Holik and Shanahan can further their careers with good playoff performances. If neither shows up to play and the Devs are ousted, I can’t see any team (let alone NJ) looking to sign them for the 09-10 season.

The flip-side is that if the Devils do manage to win the first round, it will be absolutely HUGE for their confidence. What could be a bigger confidence builder than beating the team that has proven deadly for you in the past? Sigh… time will tell. I’ll be rooting for them like hell, but if they do happen to lose the first round, count me as one of the thousands of fans that believe they dug their own graves.

As a preface, let me start off by admitting that I hate Scott Burnside. His column on ESPN.com has been anti-Devil since he started writing it – he’s a Rangers fan and he’s proud of it. And every season he picks the Devils to lose in the first round. This year is no exception.

However, while I think he has the reasoning wrong in his column, and while I’ll be esctatic to be wrong in this assessment, I don’t see the Devils getting past the ‘Canes unless they dramatically change the offense in the next 2 days.

The Devils did a lot of their scoring this season in the transition game. The power play at times has been good, but not remarkable. The penalty kill has been good most of the season, but has been horrible in the past couple of weeks. Marty has been shaky in net since setting the wins record, giving up goals we aren’t accustommed to seeing. It seems possible that his focus has wavered since achieving his personal goal.

When the Devils don’t have a transition game working, they like to setup on the perimeter and shoot from the point, hoping for a seeing-eye goal or a fat rebound. There are three reasons to worry here.

(1) The ‘canes Devils’-style defensive first strategy makes the transition game difficult during the regular season. they double down on it during the playoffs. Unless there are some real bone-headed “What was he thinking” type plays from the ‘canes, we won’t see any breakaway chances in this series.

(2) Cam Ward doesn’t give up fat rebounds. He’s a good goalie and, just as Marty gets “up” for games against the Habs, Ward seems to get “up” for games against Marty, his personal hero. Expect to see a stellar series out of Ward.

(3) The ‘Canes defense collapses around Ward more than I’ve ever seen a defense collapse. If tight situations, it isn’t uncommon for the ‘Canes to have 4 players within a stick of the crease, with one more chasing the puck on the perimeter. This seems like a dumb defense to me, but it gives the Devils fits. Point shots rarely get through the thicket of legs and torsos in front of the net and when they do, Ward is good enough to get a foot or a pad on it. The ‘Canes are very good at clearing any rebounds Ward leaves with the 4 sticks right in front of him. They very rarely leave a Devil open enough to take a rebound chance.

For these reasons, I think the following are all true – (a) Ward will outplay Marty for the third playoff appearance against each other in a row. (b) the devils will have difficulty scoring on the power play and will not have success from the point. (c) the Devils’ defense’s propencity for giving too much ground too quickly will leave Cole and Stahl too much room to manuveur and will put too much pressure on Marty, both in the PK and in 5-on-5 situations.

My predicition: ‘Canes in 5. Gawd, I hope I’m wrong…

postscript: One cannot discount the ‘Canes habit of diving to draw penalties, the officials seeming acceptance and even encouragement of this behavior and the discrepancy in penalty minutes we are likely to see in the matchup as a result. The ‘Canes have been actively perfecting the dive – whether actually contacted by the opponent or not – since 2003. This won’t stop until they are called on it and it doesn’t seem like the officials have any interest calling them on it until the networks make them look foolish for allowing it.

C’mon Melrose! I know you hate the Devils and I know you hate Newark, but you’ve got to hate these diving nancy-boys more. Start pointing this stuff out and maybe we can get a cleaner game out of the ‘Canes. Who cares about fighting when the ‘Canes are flopping all over the ice like a bunch of soccer players?